The arms race between India and Pakistan is double-barreled, with one barrel containing conventional warheads and the other containing nuclear warheads. Ironically, the race is happening at a time when both countries were of the say that the peace process between them is irreversible. India and Pakistan are indeed racing toward their respective national security objectives, but they are running on different tracks and chasing vastly different goals. Pakistan is building weapons systems to deter India from conventional military operations below the nuclear threshold. India is developing systems primarily to strengthen its strategic deterrent against China, but historical rivalry between India and Pakistan shows that development of nuclear weapons and conventional superiority of India is Pakistan’s specific.
Deterrence stability in South Asia is affected by the following six factors: 1): Conventional asymmetry between India and Pakistan, India is conventionally three times superior than Pakistan, 2): India’s development of Ballistic Missile Defense program, 3): Indo-US nuclear deal which totally altered the security calculus between India and Pakistan, 4): Development of submarines, 5): Increase in India’s defense budget, and 6): Cold Start Doctrine proposed by India in 2004. Indo-Pak rivalry is embedded in the roots of the both countries. India has started its nuclear weapon program in 1944. It first tested its nuclear weapon in 1974. Recent estimates suggest that India has between 80 and 100 nuclear weapons, consistent with earlier estimates that it had produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 75–110 nuclear weapons. India’s BMD program currently consist of three different types of ballistic missiles, the Agni-I, the Agni-II, Agni-III and the Army's variant of the Prithvi missile family. India tests the Prithvi missile in 1988 which was capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. In 1997, India moved missiles near Pakistani border. In 1998, India tested it’s another nuclear weapon Pokhran II, and at the same time it detonated five more nuclear devices. In 1999, India launched a series of airstrikes at armed Muslim infiltrators in Kashmir. Again in 2002, India successfully test fires a nuclear-capable ballistic missile Agni off its eastern coast. India tested 60 missiles in comparison to Pakistan’s 55 missile flight tests. In 2003, India conducted ten missile tests while Pakistan tested just four; in 2011 India conducted one test, while Pakistan conducted five.
In 2003, 2004, and 2005, Indian tests exceeded Pakistani. India has tested cruise missiles roughly twice as many times as Pakistan—28 and fifteen cruise missile tests, respectively. Likewise India developed Cold Start Doctrine in 2004, which was intended to use against Pakistan in case of war. Then the Indo-US nuclear deal of 2005 gave a serious blow to the national security of Pakistan. Development of Indian nuclear submarines is also of serious concern with regard to security calculus and strategic imbalance in South Asia. India in the South Asian region is trying to drag Pakistan in nuclear arms race in different capacities. In this matter it is being helped by the United States, Russia, Australia, and Canada etc.
In contrast to Pakistan’s defense spending which is 10% of the GDP, India is spending 67% since 2000 and it is increasing annually. According to the facts mentioned above it is clearly depicted that arms race has been initiated by India and is heading forward at a fast pace not only quantitatively but qualitatively as well. Missile programs of India and Pakistan demonstrate different trends. India tries to expand the missile range and it works on warheads. Also it develops the naval strategic forces, working on SSNBs and sea-based missiles. In reaction to India’s second nuclear test Pakistan responded by following the same suit as it was need of time. Since then Pakistan is moving at a very slow pace in comparison to India. Pakistan can’t afford an arms race that’s why it is not interesting in expanding the missile range. Rather it needs cruise missiles and tactical nuclear weapons. In this regard it is important to review again and again the concept of the minimal nuclear deterrence in India and Pakistan. Because India adheres to the no-first-use obligation, it might plan to use nuclear weapons as a second-strike counter-value capability. It seems that it tries to build the strategic forces, capable to target the main political, military and industrial centers of potential adversaries (China and Pakistan). Combining all the factors, conventional asymmetry, BMDs, Indo-US nuclear deal, Cold Start Doctrine, increase in defense budget and development of nuclear submarines are undermining the strategic balance of South Asia, and leading the region towards arms race by the introduction of long range missiles and sophisticated weapons.
